A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
