This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Drives Villa's Surprising Title Charge

It was two months prior when the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were an indicator or the source for the side's more general malaise.

This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. After Rogers drilled in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa continued to a 10th successive win and after failing to win their opening six matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

That’s an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of the club, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they seem strangely fragile – but right now the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Reliant Strategy

The current approach appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more versus Manchester United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a somewhat messier replica of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

Is It Sustainable?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
• The winger may rediscover the player he resembled during his peak.
• The defensive duo are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky backline.

Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

However, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.